Around this time last year, I wrote this post: https://helenmyers.blogspot.com/2025/08/why-grade-boundaries-can-be-misleading.html
Below is a version revised for the context of the new GCSE specifications for French, German and Spanish in 2026.
- I have added a section at the start to outline the new context.
- The 'comparable outcomes' section has remained the same. The GCSE specifications for French, German and Spanish have changed, but no other subjects have changed. The overall approach to grading is the same whether specifications have changed or not, with additional checks to ensure that candidates are neither advantage nor disadvantaged by the change.
What do we know already about the new GCSE 2026 for French German and Spanish?
In general candidates seem to have had a better exam experience this year It is hard to quantify, but the general vibe seems to have been that candidates were noticeably more positive compared with previous years when there was been widespread sense of candidates feeling demoralised as they left the exam hall.
The improvement makes sense, because in the new specification
a) questions are in English
b) exam boards are no longer required to include vocabulary not on the published specification word list. A restricted defined vocabulary list was in place, so there should have been ‘no surprises.
This better exam experience aligns with the experience of teachers trialling sample assessments where candidates tended to achieve higher raw marks.
A potential concern…
The provisional entry data published by Ofqual suggests that significantly more students have been entered for Higher tier this year than previously. We strongly suspect that some schools have maintained similar patterns of entry, while others have made substantial shifts.
Until results are released, we cannot know what impact this
change will have in practice.
Comparable outcomes
In advance of the release of figures for GCSE on Thursday 20th August 2026 and to avoid wasting time and drawing misleading conclusions, it’s important to understand the relationship between raw marks and grades and how grade boundaries fit into this. The principles apply to both GCSE and A Level.
1) Don’t look at grade boundaries in other subjects or in other languages
2) As far as any individual subject is concerned, because the national % getting each grade remains essentially constant, any change in grade boundaries will be a reflection of whether the pupils score more or fewer marks in the papers than in other years.
It is tempting to want to talk about something which seems
tangible (figures) but it can be unhelpful when in fact the raw marks and
boundaries do not tell you anything about standards from year to year, from subject to subject , or paper to paper.
Copy and paste of Ofqual statements:
Ofqual on grade boundaries (in 2024)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guide-to-as-and-a-level-results-for-england-summer-2024
Ofqual has said: “Exam boards have set grade
boundaries this summer based on a combination of data and qualitative evidence.
As in any year, there has been an important role for examiner judgement. Expert
examiners have reviewed the quality of students’ work compared with previous
years.
Grade boundaries typically change each exam series and are often different between exam boards. This reflects any differences in the difficulty of the assessments. If an exam paper is harder the grade boundaries will be lower, and if an exam paper is easier the grade boundaries will be higher. This is important to ensure that students are not advantaged or disadvantaged based on the exam paper that they sit. This means that some grade boundaries are lower than 2023, while others are higher.
Grading has taken place as normal this summer and standards have been maintained from summer 2023. Students can therefore be confident in the grades they receive, irrespective of the grade boundaries or how they compare to last year.”
[my summary] In practice, the process of maintaining similar percentages getting each grade in each subject (subject to entry profile changes) has been in operation for nearly 15 years and is referred to as “comparable outcomes”
Ofqual 2025
Grade boundaries change from year to year
If an exam is easier than in previous years, the grade
boundaries for that paper will be higher. If it is harder, the grade boundaries
will be lower.
The difficulty of exam questions varies year to year,
even though exam boards try to keep the level of demand consistent. That’s
because it is impossible to determine how difficult students will find a paper
until it is taken.
This is why new grade boundaries are set each year – to
reflect the difficulty of that particular paper, and to ensure that it is no
easier or harder to get a grade in any given year.
The quality of a student’s work in their exams determines
the grade they get and no-one is advantaged or disadvantaged by the year in
which they happen to sit the exam. There are no quotas for the number of
students who must pass or fail a subject each year, and no cap on the number of
students that can get each grade.
The fact the number of top grades awarded is relatively
stable from year to year reflects the fact that student performance is
typically relatively stable too.
Grade boundaries are set with the aim of maintaining
standards over time, not to ensure that the same proportion of students get a
particular grade.
Exam boards set grade boundaries by analysing data about
the students taking the qualification and comparing it with those that have
taken it previously. This data is used to identify potential grade boundaries,
which reflect whether students found the exam slightly harder or easier than
the previous year.
Senior examiners then scrutinise samples of work from
students who have achieved marks on and around these potential grade
boundaries. This is compared with work of students from the previous year who
were on the same grade boundaries.
Those scripts are studied to determine if the standard of
work at the potential grade boundary is appropriate. Senior examiners use the
evidence from their scrutiny in combination with the data, to recommend final
grade boundaries.
Grade boundaries typically differ between exam boards,
because grading reflects the level of difficulty of each particular paper. All
exam boards must cover the same subject content and assessment objectives, and
follow the same rules. But there are often small differences between the type
of questions they ask or the balance of different types of questions in a
particular paper.
Similarly, while exam boards try to keep levels of demand
consistent year-on-year, this is also very difficult to do in practice.
Where grade boundaries increase between one year and the
next, or are higher with one board than another, it does not mean it is more
difficult to achieve a grade. Rather, it reflects that that exam paper was
easier. Equally, where grade boundaries are lower with one exam board than
another that reflects that the paper was harder, not that it is easier to get a
particular grade.
Grading for GCSEs, AS or A levels in 2026
Ofqual oversees exam boards to ensure that it is no more
difficult to achieve a grade in a subject from one year to the next, and
between different exam boards. This means that the standard of work to
achieve a particular grade in 2026 will be comparable to summer
2025.
Grade boundaries often vary year to year, to reflect
fairly any changes in how difficult the paper is. The quality of a student’s
work in their exams determines the grade they get and no-one is advantaged or
disadvantaged by the year in which they happen to sit the exam.
There are no quotas for the number of students who
must pass or fail a subject each year, and no cap on the number of
students that can get each grade. The proportion of students receiving
different grades does vary a little each year. But the standard of work
required to receive a particular grade remains comparable.
More information about how grading works in GCSE, AS and
A levels can be found in Ofqual’s Understanding
grading toolkit for schools and colleges.
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Many colleagues benefit from ALL’s analysis, advocacy and resources without realising that these are produced by volunteers who themselves pay to be members. In an era when people increasingly expect everything “for free”, it is worth remembering the value of belonging to a professional organisation that works year‑round to support language education nationally.
I encourage those who are not yet members, but who benefit
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