In advance of the release of figures for GCSE tomorrow and to avoid wasting time and drawing misleading conclusions, it’s important to understand the relationship between raw marks and grades and how grade boundaries fit into this. The principles apply to both GCSE and A Level.
Ofqual have released helpful posts to explain the situation to candidates. I have copied and pasted these at the foot of this post.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guide-to-as-and-a-level-results-for-england-summer-2024
Ofqual 2025
(1) Don’t look at grade boundaries in other subjects or in other languages
(2) As far as any individual subject is concerned, because the national % getting each grade remains essentially constant, any change in grade boundaries will be a reflection of whether the pupils score more or fewer marks in the papers than in other years.
Copy and paste of Ofqual messages:
Ofqual on grade boundaries (in 2024)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guide-to-as-and-a-level-results-for-england-summer-2024
Ofqual has said: “Exam boards have set grade
boundaries this summer based on a combination of data and qualitative evidence.
As in any year, there has been an important role for examiner judgement. Expert
examiners have reviewed the quality of students’ work compared with previous
years.
Grade boundaries typically change each exam series and are often different between exam boards. This reflects any differences in the difficulty of the assessments. If an exam paper is harder the grade boundaries will be lower, and if an exam paper is easier the grade boundaries will be higher. This is important to ensure that students are not advantaged or disadvantaged based on the exam paper that they sit. This means that some grade boundaries are lower than 2023, while others are higher.
Grading has taken place as normal this summer and standards have been maintained from summer 2023. Students can therefore be confident in the grades they receive, irrespective of the grade boundaries or how they compare to last year.”
[my summary] In practice, the process of maintaining similar percentages getting each grade in each subject (subject to entry profile changes) has been in operation for nearly 15 years and is referred to as “comparable outcomes”
Ofqual 2025
Grade boundaries change from year to year
If an exam is easier than in previous years, the grade
boundaries for that paper will be higher. If it is harder, the grade boundaries
will be lower.
The difficulty of exam questions varies year to year, even
though exam boards try to keep the level of demand consistent. That’s because
it is impossible to determine how difficult students will find a paper until it
is taken.
This is why new grade boundaries are set each year – to
reflect the difficulty of that particular paper, and to ensure that it is no
easier or harder to get a grade in any given year.
The standard of work needed to get each grade remains comparable year on year
The quality of a student’s work in their exams determines
the grade they get and no-one is advantaged or disadvantaged by the year in
which they happen to sit the exam. There are no quotas for the number of
students who must pass or fail a subject each year, and no cap on the number of
students that can get each grade.
The fact the number of top grades awarded is relatively
stable from year to year reflects the fact that student performance is
typically relatively stable too.
Grade boundaries are set with the aim of maintaining
standards over time, not to ensure that the same proportion of students get a
particular grade.
Grade boundaries are decided after students take exams and when marking is nearly complete
Exam boards set grade boundaries by analysing data about the
students taking the qualification and comparing it with those that have taken
it previously. This data is used to identify potential grade boundaries, which
reflect whether students found the exam slightly harder or easier than the
previous year.
Senior examiners then scrutinise samples of work from
students who have achieved marks on and around these potential grade
boundaries. This is compared with work of students from the previous year who
were on the same grade boundaries.
Those scripts are studied to determine if the standard of
work at the potential grade boundary is appropriate. Senior examiners use the
evidence from their scrutiny in combination with the data, to recommend final
grade boundaries.
The number of students achieving each grade can differ between exam boards offering the same qualification
Grade boundaries typically differ between exam boards,
because grading reflects the level of difficulty of each particular paper. All
exam boards must cover the same subject content and assessment objectives, and
follow the same rules. But there are often small differences between the type
of questions they ask or the balance of different types of questions in a
particular paper.
Similarly, while exam boards try to keep levels of demand
consistent year-on-year, this is also very difficult to do in practice.
Where grade boundaries increase between one year and the
next, or are higher with one board than another, it does not mean it is more
difficult to achieve a grade. Rather, it reflects that that exam paper was
easier. Equally, where grade boundaries are lower with one exam board than
another that reflects that the paper was harder, not that it is easier to get a
particular grade.
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