(a) Current Y11 in maths and English
(b) Other reformed GCSE subjects for current Year 10
People are asking how they can use the results of mock exams being taken by current year 10 pupils to estimate final GCSE grades.
THE SITUATION IS RIGHTLY COMPLEXBeing fair to all the pupils of all abilities at a time of major transition and change (and by extension to their teachers) taking a wide range of GCSEs in a real world of historical legacy and political realities, not starting from scratch, we need to be sophisticated and thoughtful and avoid simplistic solutions.
It's a complex situation but there are a few key principles to help through this transition period to ensure fairness for pupils.
THERE IS INFORMATIONThere is a range of information available from Ofqual itself (the body responsible for ensuring the quality of standards in qualifications which have been written by exam boards within the constraints set by DfE) and from ASCL (the Association of School and College Leaders).
THERE IS MISLEADING RHETORIC AND MISUNDERSTANDINGThere is also much rhetoric around which is confusing the situation and so it is important to unpick some of the political rhetoric, failed logic etc. etc. For example, 'the content is more demanding'. Yes, the specifications do appear more demanding. They have stripped out any mention of what pupils can be expected to know understand and do at lower levels. However, grades will be awarded according to 'comparable outcomes' (see below), not according to any statement-related criteria.
SEPARATE DISCUSSIONSAt a time of transition, change and uncertainty this can open a floodgate to discussion (e.g the value of statement-related criteria). This may be very interesting, but it can unnecessarily distract from the task at hand, It’s important to focus on what is happening in order to ensure fairness to pupils during this transition.
1. OFQUAL GUIDANCE
The Ofqual Blog has some extremely useful posts. Here are some examples:
(a) a 9-1 campaign including a chart to show how grades 1, 4 and 7 will compare with current grades G, C and A
(b) Grade boundaries: the problems with predictions 3/2/17 This blogpost explicitly says that it is unhelpful to estimate grade boundaries in mock exams. Three reasons are given for this, and I copy and paste the third of these below:
Statistics will play a key role in making sure this year’s students are not disadvantaged by being the first to sit these new GCSEs. Exam boards will use prior attainment at Key Stage 2 for the 16-year-old cohort to predict likely achievement at the key grades – 1, 4 and 7. The bottom of these grades will be aligned with the bottom of grades G, C and A respectively so the proportions of students achieving these grades or higher will be broadly similar to the previous year. We, and the exam boards, will have the full national picture; other organisations will only have a sub-set of the cohort, which may not be representative of the national situation.
(c) Setting grade 9 in new GCSEs This post sets out how the number of grade 9s will be caluclated
2. ASCL ADVICE
ASCL has provided advice to students, parents, teachers and headteachers. Here is a copy and paste of the first FAQ in the Headteacher paper:
1 Can I give my governors an estimate of how our GCSE grade distribution in the reformed GCSEs will be this year? What about grade boundaries?
ASCL’s advice is not to rely on any predictions of grade boundary marks for new GCSEs next summer. Statistics will play a key role in making sure this year’s students are not disadvantaged by being the first to sit these new GCSEs, and the setting of grade boundaries will need to take account of the national picture which will not be known until all the papers are marked in the summer. In the School Inspection Update March 2017, Ofsted inspectors have been advised not to press schools for predictions of outcomes this year. It is possible to give an indication of the likely grade distribution because of the statistical linkage specified by Ofqual. ASCL will be publishing more guidance on this in the coming months.
MY ADVICE!One of the most common issues being raised on ML fora relates to other teachers or managers either expecting to be able to convert raw marks to grades or having managers who are putting pressure on them to convert raw marks to grades as a way of telling pupils about their attainment / progress. What can you do about this?
You have to assess what is or is not within your control. Staff are in a complicated situation. The ideal is to have managers who understand the situation and are not making unrealistic demands.
What is in your control …
Following tests, give pupils specific advice on how to improve - in effect using the assessment formatively e.g. 'you have shown you understand how to form the past tense, but you do not do this consistently accurately. Learn all the verbs which take 'être' in the past tense.'
What is out of your control ...There may be requirements set by your management at school, and you have to follow their direction. However, you could refer them to the Ofqual blog and to ASCL's advice.
I hope this helps,.