Around this time last year, I wrote this post: https://helenmyers.blogspot.com/2025/08/why-grade-boundaries-can-be-misleading.html
Below is a version revised for the context of the new GCSE specifications for French, German and Spanish in
2026.
- I have added a section at the start to outline the new context.
- The 'comparable outcomes' section has remained the same. The GCSE specifications for French, German and Spanish have changed, but no other subjects have
changed. The overall approach to grading
is the same whether specifications have changed or not, with additional checks to
ensure that candidates are neither advantage nor disadvantaged by the change.
What do we know already about the new GCSE 2026 for
French German and Spanish?
In general candidates seem to have had a better exam
experience this year It is hard to quantify, but the general vibe seems to
have been that candidates were noticeably more positive compared with previous
years when there was been widespread sense of candidates feeling demoralised as
they left the exam hall.
The improvement makes sense, because in the new
specification
a) questions are in English
b) exam boards are no longer required to include
vocabulary not on the published specification word list. A restricted defined vocabulary list was in
place, so there should have been ‘no surprises.
This better exam experience aligns with the experience of teachers
trialling sample assessments where candidates tended to achieve higher raw
marks.
However. it is really important to understand that …
1.
Higher raw marks do NOT translate into higher
grades, because that would unfairly advantage this cohort compared with
previous years.
2.
Grade boundaries are likely to be higher. As
always, the conversion of raw marks to grades will vary between languages and
between subjects and from year to year.
A potential concern…
The provisional entry data published by Ofqual suggests that
significantly more students have been entered for Higher tier this year
than previously. We strongly suspect that some schools have maintained similar
patterns of entry, while others have made substantial shifts.
Until results are released, we cannot know what impact this
change will have in practice.
Comparable outcomes
In advance of the release of figures for GCSE on Thursday 20th
August 2026 and to avoid wasting time and drawing misleading conclusions, it’s
important to understand the relationship between raw marks and grades and how
grade boundaries fit into this. The
principles apply to both GCSE and A Level.
Ofqual have released helpful posts to explain the situation
to candidates. I have copied and pasted
these at the foot of this post.
Ofqual on grade boundaries (in 2024): https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guide-to-as-and-a-level-results-for-england-summer-2024
Ofqual 2025: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/gcse-and-a-level-grading-what-you-need-to-know/gcse-and-a-level-grading-what-you-need-to-know
Ofqual 2026: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ofqual-guide-for-schools-and-colleges-2026/ofqual-guide-for-schools-and-colleges-2026#grading
Therefore
1) Don’t look at grade boundaries in other subjects or in
other languages
2) As far as any individual subject is concerned, because
the national % getting each grade remains essentially constant, any change in
grade boundaries will be a reflection of whether the pupils score more or fewer
marks in the papers than in other years.
It is tempting to want to talk about something which seems
tangible (figures) but it can be unhelpful when in fact the raw marks and
boundaries do not tell you anything about standards from year to year, from subject to subject , or paper to paper.
Copy and paste of Ofqual statements:
Ofqual on grade boundaries (in 2024)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guide-to-as-and-a-level-results-for-england-summer-2024
Ofqual has said: “Exam boards have set grade
boundaries this summer based on a combination of data and qualitative evidence.
As in any year, there has been an important role for examiner judgement. Expert
examiners have reviewed the quality of students’ work compared with previous
years.
Grade boundaries typically change each exam series and
are often different between exam boards. This reflects any differences in the
difficulty of the assessments. If an exam paper is harder the grade boundaries
will be lower, and if an exam paper is easier the grade boundaries will be
higher. This is important to ensure that students are not advantaged or
disadvantaged based on the exam paper that they sit. This means that some grade
boundaries are lower than 2023, while others are higher.
Grading has taken place as normal this summer and
standards have been maintained from summer 2023. Students can therefore be
confident in the grades they receive, irrespective of the grade boundaries or
how they compare to last year.”
[my summary] In practice, the process of
maintaining similar percentages getting each grade in each subject (subject to
entry profile changes) has been in operation for nearly 15 years and is
referred to as “comparable outcomes”
Ofqual 2025
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/gcse-and-a-level-grading-what-you-need-to-know/gcse-and-a-level-grading-what-you-need-to-know
Grade boundaries change from year to year
If an exam is easier than in previous years, the grade
boundaries for that paper will be higher. If it is harder, the grade boundaries
will be lower.
The difficulty of exam questions varies year to year,
even though exam boards try to keep the level of demand consistent. That’s
because it is impossible to determine how difficult students will find a paper
until it is taken.
This is why new grade boundaries are set each year – to
reflect the difficulty of that particular paper, and to ensure that it is no
easier or harder to get a grade in any given year.
The standard of work needed to get each grade remains
comparable year on year
The quality of a student’s work in their exams determines
the grade they get and no-one is advantaged or disadvantaged by the year in
which they happen to sit the exam. There are no quotas for the number of
students who must pass or fail a subject each year, and no cap on the number of
students that can get each grade.
The fact the number of top grades awarded is relatively
stable from year to year reflects the fact that student performance is
typically relatively stable too.
Grade boundaries are set with the aim of maintaining
standards over time, not to ensure that the same proportion of students get a
particular grade.
Grade boundaries are decided after students take exams
and when marking is nearly complete
Exam boards set grade boundaries by analysing data about
the students taking the qualification and comparing it with those that have
taken it previously. This data is used to identify potential grade boundaries,
which reflect whether students found the exam slightly harder or easier than
the previous year.
Senior examiners then scrutinise samples of work from
students who have achieved marks on and around these potential grade
boundaries. This is compared with work of students from the previous year who
were on the same grade boundaries.
Those scripts are studied to determine if the standard of
work at the potential grade boundary is appropriate. Senior examiners use the
evidence from their scrutiny in combination with the data, to recommend final
grade boundaries.
The number of students achieving each grade can differ
between exam boards offering the same qualification
Grade boundaries typically differ between exam boards,
because grading reflects the level of difficulty of each particular paper. All
exam boards must cover the same subject content and assessment objectives, and
follow the same rules. But there are often small differences between the type
of questions they ask or the balance of different types of questions in a
particular paper.
Similarly, while exam boards try to keep levels of demand
consistent year-on-year, this is also very difficult to do in practice.
Where grade boundaries increase between one year and the
next, or are higher with one board than another, it does not mean it is more
difficult to achieve a grade. Rather, it reflects that that exam paper was
easier. Equally, where grade boundaries are lower with one exam board than
another that reflects that the paper was harder, not that it is easier to get a
particular grade.
Ofqual 2026: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ofqual-guide-for-schools-and-colleges-2026/ofqual-guide-for-schools-and-colleges-2026#grading
Grading for GCSEs, AS or A levels in 2026
Ofqual oversees exam boards to ensure that it is no more
difficult to achieve a grade in a subject from one year to the next, and
between different exam boards. This means that the standard of work to
achieve a particular grade in 2026 will be comparable to summer
2025.
Grade boundaries often vary year to year, to reflect
fairly any changes in how difficult the paper is. The quality of a student’s
work in their exams determines the grade they get and no-one is advantaged or
disadvantaged by the year in which they happen to sit the exam.
There are no quotas for the number of students who
must pass or fail a subject each year, and no cap on the number of
students that can get each grade. The proportion of students receiving
different grades does vary a little each year. But the standard of work
required to receive a particular grade remains comparable.
More information about how grading works in GCSE, AS and
A levels can be found in Ofqual’s Understanding
grading toolkit for schools and colleges.
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