GCSE Results 2024

I was representing ALL at the well organised JCQ briefing this morning which included representation from Ofqual and it was very helpful to receive so much information, easily accessible.

I have brought together some detailed numbers and links which may be useful to those analysing ML results.

1 Press release from ALL

ALL has released the following Press release: 

Association for Language Learning Statement on GCSE results.

2. Detailed numbers

The overall number of GCSE entries in all subjects has risen by 4.8% to 6,186,879 in 2024 with an increase of 4.6 % in the 16-year-old population in 2024 compared with 2023. 91.4% of all entries were from 16 year-olds. Entries from students aged 17 and over are up 20.5% to 430,377 compared with 357,207 in 2023.  In 2024, students aged 17 and over represent 7.0% of all entries compared with 6.0% in 2023.

 In 2024, within a context where the 16-year-old population is bigger (by 4.6%) French entries increased by 2.8% from 130,901 in 2023 to 134,651 in 2024, German increased by 3.5% from 34,707 to 35,913, Spanish entries increased by 6.2% from 125,651 to 133,395 and and other languages by 8.1% from 39,896 to 43,121. 

Comparing entry numbers between 2024 and 2019 (pre-pandemic) French has increased by 3%, German has declined by 16.1%, Spanish has increased by 30.5% and other languages have increased by 34%.  

 These numbers are taken from the JCQ UK cumulative figures published Thursday22nd August 2024.

 

Subject	Year	Number Sat	7/A	4/C	1/G	U
French	2024	134651	28.4	71.7	98.6	100
French	2023	130901	26.6	71.2	98.2	100
French	2019	130831	24.3	70.4	98.6	100
German	2024	35913	32.5	77.8	99.1	100
German	2023	34707	28.2	77.2	98.9	100
German	2019	42791	24.7	76.0	98.7	100
Spanish	2024	133395	27.3	70.5	98.1	100
Spanish	2023	125651	26.8	70.0	97.9	100
Spanish	2019	102242	27.7	71.1	98.2	100
Other Modern Languages (5)	2024	43121	71.8	92.5	97.7	100
Other Modern Languages (5)	2023	39896	70.3	92.2	97.8	100
Other Modern Languages (5)	2019	32183	65.9	90.2	97.5	100

 

JCQ Table: GCSE Other Modern Foreign Languages Entries Summer 2023 and 2024:

 

 3. Links

a) JCQ has shared results tables and press releases here:

https://www.jcq.org.uk/gcse-level-1-and-level-2-results-summer-2024/

  

b) Ofqual has provided an  ‘Ofqual GCSE results update:

• Guide to GCSE results in England, summer 2024
• Guide to the 2024 Level 1/2, and Level 2 qualification results for Vocational and Technical Qualifications in England
• National Reference Test Results and annual statement 2024 
• Infographics showing GCSE outcomes this year
• Infographics showing VTQ outcomes this year
• Interactive analytics of GCSE outcomes over time, variability in centres’ results, and outcomes by county
• Interactive analytics of PTQ outcomes over time and by subject

 Ofqual adds that you may also find the following information useful:

• Ofqual Student Guide 2024, which includes details of the Exam Results Helpline and Ofqual’s contact details
• Exam Procedure Review Service (EPRS) guide
• National Careers Service - make choices after your exams

 

 ______________________________________________________________________

c) A reminder about my recent blogpost: 

What to look out for in GCSE ML grading on Thursday 22nd August 2024

David Blow brings together 

• the Ofqual announcement about aligning grading standards in GCSE French and German with Spanish
• the FFT Datalab graphs on provisionalentries for GCSE languages 
• and a section on ‘Cohort prior attainment profile in each subject’, where he reminds us that it is misleading to look at raw % achieving grades in different GCSE subjects, because the ability profile taking each subject will differ.  He illustrates this by sharing graphs generated by the DfE Transition Matrices published in October 2023. 

When the DfE releases Transition Matrices for 2024, we will share a further analysis of the 2024 data.

What to look out for in GCSE ML grading on Thursday 22nd August 2024

The languages' community is gearing up for GCSE results day on Thursday 22nd August. 

Thank you to David Blow, ALL Fellow,  for sharing this document entitled 'What to look out for in GCSE  ML Grading on Thursday 22nd August 2024'.  [Apologies that the formatting has not transferred well to Google docs.  I will update tomorrow!]

 I have pasted it into this blogpost.  Throughout,  italics indicate content from sources quoted.

Ofqual announcement in July

On 18th July 2024 (postponed because of the election), Ofqual announced decisions arising from the completion of their work in 2019 to bring grading in GCSE French and German up to that of GCSE Spanish.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/grading-continues-as-normal-this-summer-in-england

GCSE French and German

Ofqual decided in 2019 to better align grading standards in GCSE French and German with Spanish (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/inter- subject-comparability-in-gcse-modern-foreign- languages), following the conclusion of an extensive programme of work considering inter-subject comparability. We required exam boards to award more generously at grades 9, 7 and 4 in GCSE French and German in summer 2023. We also set out our intention to review this to consider whether any further adjustments were needed.

Following these adjustments, there is greater alignment between GCSE French, German and Spanish than prior to the pandemic. We were always clear that any adjustment might be phased over more than one year, and we are therefore requiring exam boards to make a further positive adjustment this summer in GCSE German (grades 9, 7 and 4), and GCSE French (grades 7 and 4). We are not requiring exam boards to make a further adjustment at grade 9 in GCSE French, since the evidence suggests that there was broad alignment with Spanish in summer 2023. Making these small adjustments supports Ofqual’s role to secure qualification standards.

It is important to note that the 2019 review (and hence this final piece of work) was only regarding GCSE French, German and Spanish.

These moves were welcomed by organisations, although they made the point that there was still not comparability with the other EBacc subjects. [See ALL press release 18th July 2024]  

https://www.all-languages.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Press-Release-18-July-2024.pdf

What will 2024 ML grades be like when announced on Thursday?

FFT Datalab published an extremely helpful blog on Monday.

https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2024/08/five-things-to-look-out-for-on-gcse-results-day/

Here at Datalab, we’ve been banging on about the harsh grading of modern foreign language GCSEs for years. So we were pleased to hear that Ofqual plans to make some adjustments to grading this year. But we were slightly less pleased when we heard the details of the plan.

Essentially, the plan is to award some grades in French and German more generously this year, to bring grading in these subjects more closely in line with grading in Spanish. But we would argue that grading in Spanish is also overly harsh, and that these adjustments may still not go far enough

Entries in ML

From FFT Datalab blog: 

The proportion of pupils entered for a language has fallen every year since 2019. [See picture 1] 

Picture 1

And we are likely to see another small fall this year.  Provisional data on entries suggests that, while entries to languages are likely to have increased this year, they will have increased by less than the increase in the overall population of 16 year olds. [See picture 2]

Picture 2

So, despite strong increases in entries in Spanish and other modern languages, we can probably expect to see the proportion of pupils entering languages overall fall again this year.

Picture 3 is taken from the provisional entries information and shows the entries over time for French German and Spanish and the sum of all three  as percentage of entries for Maths, as a proxy for the total number of candidates taking exams

Picture 3

Cohort prior attainment profile in each subject

This information is only made public in October each year when the DfE publishes the Subject Transition Matrices, so we can only go up to 2023.  Ofqual and the exam boards do have access to the 2024 prior attainment figures (i.e. KS2 in 2019) and use those as part of the “comparable outcomes” process to ensure a reasonably consistent year to year picture.

It is misleading to look at raw % achieving grades in different GCSE subjects, because the ability profile taking each subject will differ.

 Although “comparable outcomes” is in place to ensure that in general % getting each grade in each subject remain reasonably constant over time, clearly,  if fewer lower prior attainment pupils take a subject, then the percentage of higher grades should rise.

The Ofqual decision in 2019 was to bring grading in GCSE French and German up to GCSE Spanish.  However, between 2019 and 2023 the profiles taking French, German and Spanish changed, and we expect the change to be maintained if not furthered in 2024 

Entries from 2019 to 2023:

• French: 109,139 to 110.101
• German: 37,292 to 29,523
• Spanish: 85250 to 104,718

There is a complication in comparison by prior attainment because the scale for KS2 prior attainment changed from sub-levels to scaled scores – roughly the KS2 Level 4b should align with scaled score of 100 whilst the top and bottom stay put.

We can see clearly in picture 4 the numbers of entries, where dotted lines represent 2019 and solid lines 2023, that the number of entries in Spanish from pupils of lower prior attainment have risen relatively.

Picture 4

The clearest way is to compare within 2019 and within 2023 the relative proportion for each prior attainment group doing French and German relative to Spanish, which is shown in Picture 5.

Picture 5

You can see clearly that the proportion of most able students in German relative to Spanish has risen noticeably (and in French), and so the proportion of top grade in German should rise in order to maintain “comparable outcomes”.

It is also worth looking at the raw numbers in the DfE Transition Matrices published in October.  You can see in Picture 6 that in 2023, there were over 10,000 students for Spanish entered with scaled score below 100 (the “expected” score), and yet over 500 of them gained a grade 8 or 9. 

Picture 6

 Whereas in German, (Picture 7) only 2,000 students had KS2 below 100, and only 20 of them gained a grade 8 or 9!

Picture 7

This information for 2024 will be published by the DfE in October, but it is unlikely to change much from 2023. Below in picture 8 is the subject Transition Matrix for French to explain what the figures mean.

Picture 8